Bayesian optimization is a sequential model-based optimization (SMBO) algorithm in which each iteration of testing improves the sampling method of the next. Both grid and random searches can be performed concurrently, but each test is performed in isolation—data scientists can’t use what they’ve learned to inform subsequent tests.
Based on prior tests, Bayesian optimization probabilistically selects a new set of hyperparameter values that is likely to deliver better results. The probabilistic model is referred to as a surrogate of the original objective function. Because surrogate models are compute-efficient, they’re usually updated and improved each time the objective function is executed.
The better the surrogate gets at predicting optimal hyperparameters, the faster the process becomes, with fewer objective function tests required. This makes Bayesian optimization far more efficient than the other methods, since no time is wasted on unsuitable combinations of hyperparameter values.
The process of statistically determining the relationship between an outcome—in this case, the best model performance—and a set of variables is known as regression analysis. Gaussian processes are one such SMBO popular with data scientists.