Preparing governments for future shocks: Roadmap to resilience

Since the start of the 21st century, pandemics, extreme weather events, cyberattacks, broken supply chains, and other major disruptions have pummeled countries around the world. In the US alone, the cumulative costs of major disasters—defined as at least $1 billion in cost—are over $2 trillion since 1980.

In the aftermath of these events, serious deficiencies have emerged in disaster prediction, planning, and responsiveness. Improving these capabilities will require government leaders to re-evaluate and re-imagine strategies, systems, and networks to protect citizens, infrastructures, and economies from the devastation of future shocks.

60% of government leaders believe that the frequency of shock events is likely to increase in the future and 70% believe that shock events are likely to increase in intensity and impact.

During 2023, the IBM Institute for Business Value (IBV), the IBM Center for The Business of Government (the Center), and the National Academy of Public Administration (the Academy) sponsored a series of expert roundtable discussions on the topic of future shocks. In addition, the IBV surveyed business and government leaders to find out how high-level officials and executives think about disruptive events—and how they expect to manage and mitigate them.

As future shock events evolve in speed of onset and scope of impact, government leaders need to prepare for shocks that cut across government agencies, levels, and societal sectors. Recognizing that shock events overlap organizational boundaries and jurisdictions, many experts and executives see significant value in crosscutting organizational response strategies.

Creating synergies through shared services and agility

Through the establishment of Centers of Excellence—shared services that coordinate disaster planning and recovery expertise and resources between government agencies and the private sector—businesses, academic institutions, charities, and other nongovernmental organizations can aid and amplify government responses. Properly constituted, organized, and funded, these Centers of Excellence could unlock new synergies derived from public-private networks and be especially helpful in coordinating response and recovery at the local level.

To respond to shock events at speed and scale, roundtable participants and researchers recommend that governments adopt the agile development methods widely used in technology industries. With the growing sophistication of predictive analytical tools, governments can also build on insights gained from strategic tabletop exercises to develop more accurate “what if” scenarios and contingency plans.

Washington annually spends almost $694 billion on contracts. This enormous buying power presents a powerful opportunity to embed future shock resilience in procurement decisions and contracts.

Building capacity for a more resilient future

Government leaders also need to adopt generative AI and other transformative technologies to support decision makers and augment the government workforce. Investing in training and development will help ensure that government workers have the right skills to deploy advanced technologies and support mission-critical roles.

As they reinforce emergency preparedness, government leaders have additional opportunities to support ongoing sustainability agendas. By furthering renewable energy development and preparing other resources for the future, governments can significantly bolster response capacity to shock events.

Download the report and learn how government leaders can build public-private partnerships, deploy generative AI and other advanced technologies, support decision-making, and build resilience in an age of unpredictable and unrelenting future shocks.