AI decision advantage for defense
Today, more armed conflicts are occurring between nation states than at any time since World War II, and global military spending has reached an all-time high. In response to this challenging geopolitical landscape, national defense leaders are turning to artificial intelligence as a strategic capability to augment tactical superiority, enhance national security, and support decision-making throughout their organizations.
Maximizing resources in the current defense environment is a major concern. For example, the number of active-duty military personnel in the US armed forces is at its lowest level since 1940, and the UK has experienced a 30% reduction in its military ranks since 2000. With fewer people tasked to do more in increasingly complex operational theaters, national defense strategists at the Pentagon and other DoD organizations see advancements in data, analytics, and AI development as force multipliers and enablers.
Whether applied downrange to kinetic operations, to sustainment, support, and security, or to a host of other applications, AI systems—especially with generative AI—are developing rapidly. Defense organizations are racing to understand, test, adopt, and exploit AI-enabled capabilities, ranging from cybersecurity to support for warfighters in the Army, Navy, Air Force and other service branches, all in the effort to determine where the most strategic impacts will come from.
35% of defense leaders indicate AI will be extremely important in the next three years.
Defense organizations are prioritizing and boosting investments in AI
The importance of artificial intelligence to future defense missions and national security continues to grow. Since 2020, defense leaders have expressed their confidence in AI by increasing investments in this technology. In fact, 13% said their organizations had significantly increased investment in generative AI over the last three years, with another 40% pointing to significant investment increases in machine learning and other AI technologies.
A solid majority of surveyed defense leaders say that artificial intelligence, including generative AI, will improve their operational capability and readiness, with 44% saying this outcome is likely and 18% going further to say this outcome is extremely likely.
In 2020, 29% of defense leaders said they were at the implementation stage in adopting AI. In 2023, their reported level of AI implementation was only three percentage points higher.
Progress lags behind expectations on adapting and scaling AI for defense
Three years ago, defense leaders had high expectations for adopting AI systems to support a wide range of capabilities and missions. However, AI skill shortages, data governance issues, and ethical challenges continue to be speed bumps.
Defense leaders share many concerns about ensuring ethical and responsible use of generative AI in defense while addressing risks, controlling for biases, maintaining human oversight, and adhering to international norms and standards. To improve transparency, trustworthiness, and explainability of generative AI models, and optimize them for reliable performance in critical defense situations, leaders point to a common denominator—build trust in the models with a data fabric approach to govern and protect the data.
In the category of advanced analysis techniques specific to defense and the armed services, reliance on the private sector is now 43%, a decrease of 19% in three years.
Defense organizations are building up internal AI capabilities to reduce reliance on the private sector
Despite the challenges, the promise of artificial intelligence is so compelling that defense leaders are doubling down—especially on generative AI capabilities. The US Department of Defense Chief Digital and Artificial Intelligence Office (CDAO) and other national security organizations are collaborating extensively with defense contractors. Defense organizations tend to depend more on private sector for AI development and AI technology during the earliest stages of AI adoption, especially during consideration and evaluation. As AI use continues through piloting, assessments, implementing, operating, and optimizing, defense organizations are taking on more responsibility and autonomy at later stages of AI adoption.
Despite the focus on greater autonomy, many defense leaders will continue to look to private sector partners for assistance in key areas. For example, in eight out of the ten top categories of AI capabilities and AI development, chief digital officers and other defense leaders expect to remain at least somewhat reliant on their private sector partners in 2026. This trend suggests that engagement with the private sector across a wide range of AI-enabled capabilities will continue at meaningful levels and defense leaders will be strategic in prioritizing AI tasks where more internal capabilities are needed.
Download the research brief and learn how defense leaders, along with private industry partners, can apply AI to develop, expand, and extend defense capabilities and achieve decision advantage in an era of geopolitical conflict and complexity.
