Executive summary

Predictive policing provides real-time insights to officers to drive proactive crime prevention in Manchester, New Hampshire.

Established in 1846, the Manchester Police Department (MPD) in the US serves the 110,000 inhabitants of the city of Manchester, New Hampshire, the state’s largest city. The MPD has 237 sworn officers who police a jurisdiction comprising a 35-square-mile area in Hillsborough County on the border with Massachusetts.

New Hampshire’s heroin epidemic caused a surge in crime and the MPD struggled to anticipate where crimes would occur. The agency had been performing manual risk assessments based on historical trends, but this method proved unwieldy, time-consuming and reactive. Officers needed real-time data about where crimes were likely to happen so that they could proactively prevent them.

The MPD worked with IBM Premier Business Partner Ironside Group Inc. to develop an analytics-based predictive policing solution. The solution helps law enforcement more effectively predict crimes and likely offenders. Officers can also gain the insight to place officers in key positions discouraging it altogether.

“The solution takes us from being reactive to proactive. Now, we can determine where crime is likely to happen and prevent it.”

Matt Barter, Detective

Manchester Police Department

With the new solution, patrol officers can analyze near-real time data in minutes instead of waiting days to develop analyses to plan crime-prevention strategies.

Armed with data that it can use to work proactively, the police department has seen a 28 percent drop in the robbery rate over the previous year, and an 18 percent drop over the 20-week period prior to the solution’s launch. Burglaries are down by 17 percent over the previous year, with a reduction of 16 percent over that same 20-week period. And theft from motor vehicles is down by 36 percent over the prior year, with a dramatic 43 percent drop over the 20 weeks prior to deployment of the solution.

Solution components


  • IBM® SPSS Modeler


  • Ironside Group Inc.

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