SCENARIOPERIOD subcommand (TCM ANALYSIS command)

The SCENARIOPERIOD subcommand defines the period over which you specify the values that are used to run your scenarios. This period is referred to as the scenario period. The subcommand also specifies how far into the future to predict the effects of the scenario values. All scenarios use the same scenario period and the same specification for how far to predict into the future.

  • The scenario period can start before or after the end of the estimation period. The estimation period is the same as was used to build the model system. The keyword START specifies the start of the scenario period and is required. The keyword END specifies the end of the scenario period and is required.
  • The PREDICTTHRU keyword specifies how far to predict beyond the end of the scenario period. If PREDICTTHRU is omitted, then predictions are generated through the end of the scenario period.
    Note: Predictions start at the first time period after the beginning of the scenario period. For example, if the scenario period starts on 2014-11-01 and the time interval is months, then the first prediction is for 2014-12-01.
TIMES=ABSOLUTE
Specifies that START, END, and PREDICTTHRU are defined by date/time values or by lists of integers (for observations that are not defined by date/time values).
  • For observations that are defined by a date, datetime, time, or string field, the FORMAT keyword is required (and ignored otherwise). It specifies the format of the values for START, END, and PREDICTTHRU. Values for START, END, and PREDICTTHRU must be quoted in this case.
    VARIABLE
    Specifies to use the variable format for the variable that defines the observations; for example, mm/dd/yyyy. This option applies only when observations are defined by a date, datetime, or time field.
    ISO8601
    Specifies that values for START, END, and PREDICTTHRU are in the general form of yyyy-mm-dd hh:mm:ss. FORMAT=ISO8601 must be specified when the observations are defined by a string field.
    • Dates are specified in the form yyyy-mm-dd. Datetimes are specified in the form yyyy-mm-dd hh:mm:ss. Times are specified in the form hh:mm:ss.
    • Two digits are not required for month, day, hours, minutes or seconds specifications. For example, 2014-1-1 is interpreted as 2014-01-01 and 3:2:1 is interpreted as 03:02:01.
    • Values can be specified with reduced precision. For example, 2014-10 is interpreted as 2014-10-01 and 03:02 is interpreted as 03:02:00.
  • For observations that are defined by cyclic period fields, START, END, and PREDICTTHRU are lists of integers, consisting of one value for each of the cyclic period fields. The first value is the value for the highest level cycle field, followed by the next highest cycle field, and so on.
    For example, the following syntax specifies the start, end, and predict through time when there are two cycle levels, in addition to a period field:
    START = 3 6 2  END = 3 6 4 PREDICTTHRU = 3 6 5
    The start of the scenario period is defined by a value of 3 for the second-level cycle, a value of 6 for the first-level cycle, and a value of 2 for the period field. The end of the scenario period is defined by a value of 3 for the second- level cycle, a value of 6 for the first-level cycle, and a value of 4 for the period field. The predict through time is specified by a value of 3 for the second-level cycle, a value of 6 for the first-level cycle, and a value of 5 for the period field.
  • For observations that are defined by record number, START, END, and PREDICTTHRU consist of a single value that specifies the starting record number, the ending record number, and how far to predict beyond the ending record number. For example, the following syntax specifies a scenario period that starts at record 58 and ends at record 60. Predictions are generated for one more time period beyond the end of the scenario period.
    START = 58  END = 60 PREDICTTHRU = 61
  • For observations that are defined by a date specification (DATE command), START, END, and PREDICTTHRU are lists of integers that consist of one value for each of the components of the date specification. For example, if the date specification is YEAR and MONTH, then the lists consist of two items, one for the year and one for the month. The order of the values is from the highest level component to the lowest level component. For example, the following syntax specifies start, end, and predict through times for a date specification that is defined by YEAR and MONTH:
    START = 2013 10  END = 2013 12 PREDICTTHRU = 2014 3
    The start of the scenario period is defined by a value of 2013 for the year and 10 for the month. The end of the scenario period is defined by a value of 2013 for the year and 12 for the month. Predictions are generated through to a value of 2014 for the year and 3 for the month.
TIMES=RELATIVE
Specifies that START and END are defined by time intervals that are relative to the end of the estimation period. The time interval refers to the interval at which the data were modeled. For example, if the observations are daily but the data are aggregated to months, then the time interval is months.
  • The end of the estimation period is defined as interval 0. Negative values represent intervals prior to the end of the estimation period and positive values represent intervals after the end of the estimation period.
  • PREDICTTHRU must be a non-negative integer and represents the number of intervals past the time that is specified for the END keyword.