Preference Probabilities of Simulations

This table gives the predicted probabilities of choosing each of the simulation cases as the most preferred one, under three different probability-of-choice models. The maximum utility model determines the probability as the number of respondents predicted to choose the profile divided by the total number of respondents. For each respondent, the predicted choice is simply the profile with the largest total utility. The BTL (Bradley-Terry-Luce) model determines the probability as the ratio of a profile's utility to that for all simulation profiles, averaged across all respondents. The logit model is similar to BTL but uses the natural log of the utilities instead of the utilities. Across the 10 subjects in this study, all three models indicated that simulation profile 2 would be preferred.