Model Predictions

Figure 1. New variables containing model predictions
Data editor displaying new variables containing the model predictions

The Data Editor shows the new variables containing the model predictions. Although only two are shown here, there are 85 new variables, one for each of the 85 dependent series. The variable names consist of the default prefix Predicted, followed by the name of the associated dependent variable (for example, Market_1), followed by a model identifier (for example, Model_1).

Three new cases, containing the forecasts for January 2004 through March 2004, have been added to the dataset, along with automatically generated date labels. Each of the new variables contains the model predictions for the estimation period (January 1999 through December 2003), allowing you to see how well the model fits the known values.

Figure 2. Forecast table
Forecast table

You also chose to create a table with the forecasted values. The table consists of the predicted values in the forecast period but—unlike the new variables containing the model predictions—does not include predicted values in the estimation period. The results are organized by model and identified by the model name, which consists of the name (or label) of the associated dependent variable followed by a model identifier--just like the names of the new variables containing the model predictions. The table also includes the upper confidence limits (UCL) and lower confidence limits (LCL) for the forecasted values (95% by default).

You have now seen two approaches for obtaining the forecasted values: saving the forecasts as new variables in the active dataset and creating a forecast table. With either approach, you will have a number of options available for exporting your forecasts (for example, into an Excel spreadsheet).

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