Defining the Scenario Period (Temporal Causal Model Scenarios)

The scenario period is the period over which you specify the values that are used to run your scenarios. It can start before or after the end of the estimation period. You can optionally specify to predict beyond the end of the scenario period. By default, predictions are generated through the end of the scenario period. All scenarios use the same scenario period and specifications for how far to predict.

Note: Predictions start at the first time period after the beginning of the scenario period. For example, if the scenario period starts on 2014-11-01 and the time interval is months, then the first prediction is for 2014-12-01.

Specify by start, end and predict through times

If the observations are defined by a date/time field, then enter values for start, end, and predict through in the same format that is used for the date/time field. Values for date/time fields are aligned to the beginning of the associated time interval. For example, if the time interval of the analysis is months, then the value 10/10/2014 is adjusted to 10/01/2014, which is the beginning of the month.
For observations that are defined by cyclic periods, specify a value for each of the cyclic periods fields. Each field is displayed in a separate column.

Specify by time intervals relative to end of estimation period

Defines start and end in terms of the number of time intervals relative to the end of the estimation period, where the time interval is the time interval of the analysis. The end of the estimation period is defined as time interval 0. Time intervals before the end of the estimation period have negative values and intervals after the end of the estimation period have positive values. You can also specify how many intervals to predict beyond the end of the scenario period. The default is 0.

For example, assume that the time interval of the analysis is months and that you specify 1 for starting interval, 3 for ending interval, and 1 for how far to predict beyond that. The scenario period is then the 3 months that follow the end of the estimation period. Predictions are generated for the second and third month of the scenario period and for 1 more month past the end of the scenario period.