Tim O'Reilly Keynote at November 3, 2009 PayPal Innovate09 Conference
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Osama Bedier introduced TOR as a "visionary"...TORs quipped did Osama just call me an missionary. Maybe I'm that too.
TOR opened with these thoughts...."We have all these terms Web 2.0, Cloud Computing.....TOR stressed I like to say "you keep using that word, but I don't think it means what you think it means"
TOR's comments on Building the Internet operating system.....Not like PC OS....very different business rules. Jeff Bezos believes Amazon will win in the "low margin" world of Cloud Computing....he says anything is better than low margin retail. TOR believes there is money to be made in Cloud, especially in Apps and services. As with the open source paradigm shift, where everyone focused on Linux will displace MS. TOR pointed out lessons learned from open source...the margin didn't disappear, it went somewhere else. Now the margins have moved to Web 2.0. The heart behind Internet OS. A data oriented OS (people, places, things, prices,...) and services that help people use them (search,...)
O'Reilly radar methodology ....
- The future is here it is just not evenly distributed.
- Watch "alpha geeks" and study the futures they are living in
- then look for trend data
For example, Google pizza ordering app.....say "pizza" into your phone...it is doing speech recognition in the cloud. Cloud services (speech, location, payment,...) are combined to do a job that none of them could do alone. Why did Google offer 411 service.....they wanted to gather speech data. Google working on text tran
More examples from TOR .....
* Quake catcher app....uses sensors in laptop to detect earth quakes. We are now seeing see sensor apps everywhere. Affective Interfaces app detects your mood while you are looking at ads. Similar adaptive Interface can monitor how you are doing in the car (are you getting drowsy,....)
* Path intelligence....now count the cell phones to see how many people are traversing a space (how many people went down this aisle vs another aise,....
* AMEE....smart data from couple millions homes in UK....this data is a resource worth exploring.
* Project Gaydar....MIT project that focused on analyzing social networking patterns to identify individuals as gay.....underscores huge privacy issues with the emergence of Cloud services and collective intelligence.
Machine learning is not just for robots. Machine learning now is many web applications. Web 2.0 is abut finding, meaning in user-generated data and device generated data and turning that into competitive advantage.
TOR recently published "Web squared" ...Web 2.0 in the next 5 years.
Cloud + Mobile = Augmented Reality. Headed towards very interesting work on mobile applications driven by the Cloud. Image recognition. Leverage cooperating data services (Face recognition + Social Network + Location,...). We learn by '"context accu
If the internet becomes an operating system, what is the architecture of that operating sysytem. Could lead to natural monopoly (One ring to rule them all). The architecture should be loosely joined pieces.....but it could be controlled by a few. e.g. Facebook is trying to be the platform, iPhone is trying to be the platform, Amazon as the platform, Google is trying the platform.
Look at Google....Search is fundamental internet service. Increasingly more and more data is residing on Google. Back to pizza story. Google didn't want to partner on speech recognition, location services, payment...all the services came from Google. TOR wants to see "cooperative" data services that make the internet the platform. How do we build services that come from multiple providers. Internet will be less vibrant if dominated by Google and others.
TOR excited that Paypal is a first order internet data subsystem, inherently decentralize.d...a model for the way the Internet operating system ought to work.
Advice for Paypal.
1. API design is like sex - make one mistake and suppport it for the rest of your life
2. More than payment...your wallet is for payment, ID, loyalty cards, discounts, receipts, special things. All of these are moving out of the physical wallet, many of them on the phone. There is a huge opportunity to build innovative services.
* Build services that mash up - speech, location,....
* good example speech recognition mashup - Ribbit
* big emerging opportunity in Gov2.0
3. TCP implementations should follow a general principle of robustness; be conservative in what you you do, be liberatl in what you accept from others
In closing, TOR said "I'm counting on you as Paypal devleopers to do just that give us an "internet operating system" that works for all of us!".