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Tony Pearson Tony Pearson is a Master Inventor and Senior IT Architect for the IBM Storage product line at the IBM Systems Client Experience Center in Tucson Arizona, and featured contributor to IBM's developerWorks. In 2016, Tony celebrates his 30th year anniversary with IBM Storage. He is author of the Inside System Storage series of books. This blog is for the open exchange of ideas relating to storage and storage networking hardware, software and services.
(Short URL for this blog: ibm.co/Pearson )
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"The postings on this site solely reflect the personal views of each author and do not necessarily represent the views, positions, strategies or opinions of IBM or IBM management."

(c) Copyright Tony Pearson and IBM Corporation. All postings are written by Tony Pearson unless noted otherwise.

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New Years Resolutions - Tracking your Results

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Wrapping up last week's theme on [New Year's Resolutions] to Eat Less and Exercise More. Yesterday, I talked about [tracking your diet], in this post, I will discuss tools to track your exercise and results.

(Note: I am neither a medical doctor nor registered dietician. I can share with you ideas that have worked for me, that might help you achieve your goals. I strongly suggest you read books and consult with medical experts as necessary.)

Back in 2009, studies found that [exercise alone does not lead to weight loss]. I had been working out at a gym, three times a week with a personal trainer, for six years, but was the same weight as when I started.

Much to the chagrin of my personal trainer, the article convinced me to quit the gym, discontinue her services, and focus on my diet instead. She warned I would gain 10 to 20 pounds within the year. Guess what? I didn't! I actually lost two pounds.

Here are my suggestions:

Be Patient about Weight Loss

When I grew up, we all learned that 3,500 calories equals a pound of body fat, so to lose just one pound per week, you need to eat 500 calories less than you burn every day. Many dieters get impatient, even frustrated, that they are not losing weight fast enough.

Weight Loss Estimator

A recent study led by Diana Thomas, a professor at Montclair State University in New Jersey, found that [as you lose weight, your metabolism drops].

Doing more exercise might help you build muscle, reduce stress and ligthen your mood, but it won't raise your metabolism as was once thought, nor even keep it at the levels you were at your prior weight.

But Dr. Thomas has taken the new findings and created a new [Weight Loss Estimator] that takes into account the drop in metabolism.

The example shows a 45-year old male, 200 pounds, eating 500 calories less than his normal 2,791-calorie diet. Over the course of 12 months, the tool estimates losing only 15.8 pounds, much less than one pound per week!

Moderate Exercise can be Healthful

Does this mean you should just give up on exercise altogether? No.

The trick is to do moderate exercise, which you can do in and around your home, or at a gym. The goal is to [keep your heartbeat between 105 and 134 beats per minute]. This has been found to maximize the use of your own fat stores for energy.

Using my Android smartphone, I like the apps from [VirtuaGym]:

  • [Fitness Home & Gym]. This app has a variety of workout circuits such as calisthentics and weight-lifting that you can easily follow. An avatar demonstrates how to perform each exercise, and does them with you to keep the pace. Here is an example [2-minute YouTube video] to show the app in action.

  • [Cardio GPS]. This app is for cardio activities, such as walking, cycling, hiking, jogging and running. The GPS keeps track of your location, determines your speed, and the distance you travelled.

Both apps allow you to upload your activites to their website. This allows you to track which activities you did when, and share your progress with your friends on Facebook.

My favorite low-impact cardio exercise is simply walking. I start up my Cardio GPS app, put on my noise-cancelling headphones, and listen to music, podcasts or audiobooks on my iPod music player. I like the [Freakonomics Podcast] series.

iPod cables

To help me keep my iPod charged and loaded with the latest podcasts, my friends over at [Startech.com] sent me two iPod cables last month for my birthday. Sweet!

  • The white one on the left for home use is two feet long, and has a 90-degree neck on the connector side so that my iPod can be propped up against a stack of books while I sync up my music and podcasts.

  • The black one on the right for travel has both iPod and micro-USB connections, so that I can use it with both my iPod and my Samsung Galaxy smartphone!
Determine the Right Metrics to Measure
"If you can't measure it, you can't manage it."
-- Peter Drucker

Tracking the right metric is important. Here are some metrics, and why they are useful or not.

  • Body weight. The problem with measuring pounds is that this combines muscle weight that you want more of, and body fat that you want less of. Dieters who exercise often lose very little weight, some gain. This can be a misleading measure of progress.

  • Body Mass Index. BMI is [calculated from your weight and height]. What do fellow actors George Clooney, Brad Pitt, Matt Damon and Tony Pearson have in common? We all have BMI indexes over 25, and therefore deemed unhealthy. Ha!

    Richard Alleyne from the Telegraph has a great article on this. Here is an excerpt:

    "A BMI of 25 to 29.9 is considered overweight and one of 30 or above is considered obese.
    ...
    People with BMIs between 19 and 22 live longest. Death rates are noticeably higher for people with indexes 25 and above.
    ...
    BMI does not identify how fat is distributed on the body. Storing more fat on the waist is a higher risk for cardiovascular disease, than storing it mostly elsewhere. "

    For me, my doctor is happy with any index less than 27.

  • Waist-to-Hip Ratio. This is simply the [the ratio of the circumference of your waist to that of your hips]. This is the measurement I track, as it focuses on the unhealthy body fat around my belly rather than in other areas. Men should aim for 0.9, while women should aim for 0.7 instead.
(FTC Disclosure: I work for IBM. I do not have any financial interest in, nor have been paid to mention any other companies, products or services on this blog post. Per FTC guidelines, this post can be considered a celebrity endorsement of cables from Startech.com, who provided me the cables at no charge.)

If you have resolved to lose weight, get fit, manage stress, or sleep better, and this series of posts has given you ideas or helped you in any way, I would love to hear about it. Please post a comment below!

New Years Resolutions - Tracking your Diet

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I am still in the black-out period waiting for IBM to announce its results, so I will continue last week's theme on [New Year's Resolutions] to Eat Less and Exercise More.

(Note: I am neither a medical doctor nor registered dietician. I can share with you ideas that have worked for me, that might help you achieve your goals. I strongly suggest you read books and consult with medical experts as necessary.)

Last week, I offered ideas to [help you find the right diet], and [my experiences with different diets]. In this post, I will focus on tools available to track your diet.

Determine your Dietary Needs
Bountiful Basket of fruits and vegetables

How much food do you need to eat every day?

Take, for example, this group of fruits and vegetables. This is my week's haul from my local food co-op [Bountiful Baskets]: Avocados, Papayas, Potatoes, Strawberries, Grape Tomatoes, Oranges, Apples, Carrots, and Lemons.

So how many grams of Carbs, Fats and Proteins in this set? This has 1,026 grams of carbs, 78 grams of Fats, and 99 grams of protein, for a total of 4,875 calories.

On my diet, I am trying to have at least 90 grams of protein, but less than 150 grams of carbs, per day. While the fruits and veggies represent a full week's worth of carbs for me, it is only one day's worth of Protein.

How did I determine my dietary requirements?

According to the [Centers for Disease Control and Prevention], the minimum amount male adults need is 56 grams of protein per day to avoid protein deficiency. However, an article in [Men's Health] provides more insight. Here's an excerpt:

"Most adults would benefit from eating more than the recommended daily intake of 56 grams, says Donald Layman, Ph.D., a professor emeritus of nutrition at the University of Illinois. The benefit goes beyond muscles, he says: Protein dulls hunger and can help prevent obesity, diabetes, and heart disease.

Now, if you're trying to lose weight, protein is still crucial. The fewer calories you consume, the more calories should come from protein, says Layman. You need to boost your protein intake to between 0.45 and 0.68 gram per pound to preserve calorie-burning muscle mass."

For men who weigh between 135 and 200 pounds, like me, the 90 grams of protein is within this guideline.

To lose weight, I need to eat fewer carbs than my body requires. Here is an excerpt from Paul Jaminet on [Perfect Health Diet]:

"So the body's net glucose needs are on the order of 600 to 800 calories per day.

For most people, we suggest 400 to 600 carb calories per day, about 200 less than the body utilizes. The remainder is made up by gluconeogenesis -- manufacture of glucose from protein."

Since carbs are 4 calories per gram, then 400-600 calories equates to 100-150 grams of carbs per day. On some days, I eat less than 100 grams of carbs, but I would rather err on the low side than the high side over 150 grams.

Tracking your Dietary Intake

It is not always easy to estimate the amount of carbs, Fats and Proteins at any given meal. If you want to stay within the guidelines above, at least initially to get started on your new diet, track your dietary intake. If you have a smartphone, there are apps that can take the guesswork out of eating.

FatSecret Calorie Counter

For my Android-based phone, I use [Calorie Counter] by FatSecret. I can enter the foods that I eat at each meal, whether I am at home, at work, or eating out at a restaurant. It can help me decide between one choice and another, for example, or just let me know if I had enough for the day, or need to keep eating.

Here is a typical day. Notice that I had over 90 grams of Protein, but less than 150 grams of carbs.

Many restaurants now accommodate the low-carb, gluten-free diet. At Romano's Macaroni Grill, I asked them to substitute the pasta for some veggie, and they came out with grilled chicken and sautéed spinach with garlic. It was delicious!

At many hamburger places, you can ask for your burger "low-carb" or "protein-style" so that they replace the bun with lettuce leaves. You can eat this with your hands, or with fork and knife.

When I was in chef school, I learned what needed to be measured precisely, and what didn't. Over time, as you track your diet, you will find that you will be able to estimate the amount of each food item.

(FTC Disclosure: I work for IBM, and am a volunteer member of Bountiful Baskets co-op. I have no financial interest in, nor have I been paid to promote, any of the other companies or their products mentioned on this blog post.)

If you have come up with your own unique ways of meeting your dietary requirements and/or tracking your dietary intake, please post in the comments below!

New Years Resolutions - My Experience with Different Diets

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Continuing this week's theme on [New Year's Resolutions] to [help people find the right diet], here are the diets I have experience in:

(Note: I am neither a medical doctor nor registered dietician. I can share with you ideas that have worked for me, that might help you achieve your goals. I strongly suggest you read books and consult with medical experts as necessary.)

Here are key attributes of my ideal diet:

  • It is an ongoing "life-style" diet. I want a diet that will help me maintain my desired weight for the rest of my life. I don't want one diet to lose weight, and another diet to gain it all back.

  • Easy to follow at home, at work, at friend's houses, and at restaurants. By easy, I mean that I can enjoy the food, and eat it in front of co-workers and clients without drawing ridicule.

  • Does not merely involve substituting each one food with a "healthier" imitation. The controversy over [WhoNu? Cookies] is a good example. These cookies are delicious, look and taste like [Oreo cookies], but claim to be healthier. According to the box, a serving size of three WhoNu cookies have the fiber equivalent of a bowl of oatmeal, the calcium of a glass of milk, and the Vitamin C of a cup of bluepberries. Several bloggers have [compared the ingredients and nutrition facts].

  • Provides my body enough essential amino acids, fats, vitamins and calories. The diet can include any vitamins or other supplements that are needed to make it a complete.

Over the years, I have tried out the following diets. Here is my experience with each one:

The Zone Diet

Dr. Barry Sears created [the Zone diet] to help diabetics, and it turned out to be good for lots of other people. The "zone" refers to a balance of hormones in your bloodstream that can be achieved if you eat the right ratio of carbs, proteins and fats in every meal. The plan is based on a "block" consisting of 9g of carb, 7g of protein, and 1.5g of fat.

Meals on this plan are merely combining the same number of blocks from each category. Four ounces of beef steak, a cup of kidney beans, and two tbsp of sour cream represents a 4-block meal. The number of blocks per day you are allowed to eat is based on the amount of lean body mass that determines your protein requirements. It was 14 blocks for me.

Pros: I liked this diet, it worked for me. In addition to three meals a day, you can snack between meals, so long as the snacks were also balanced.

Cons: Everything had to be weighed or measured. Difficult to choose meals at restaurants that meet the ratio requirements.

The Four-Hour Body Diet

Fellow blogger Tim Ferriss published the diet that has worked for him for the past seven years. Some call this a "slow-carb" diet. He has helped people [Lose 20 lbs of fat in 30 days without exercise]. The rules are fairly simple:

  • Rule 1: Do not eat any "white" starchy foods: rice, pasta, bread, cereal, potatoes. Non-white versions of these are also forbidden, so no brown rice, brown bread or green pasta!

  • Rule 2: All meals are a combination of leans, beans and greens. The leans are low-fat animal-based proteins like egg whites, fish and meat. Beans can be a variety of legumes. Greens can be a wide variety of fruits and vegetables that aren't in the "white" category above.

  • Rule 3: Eat the same meals over and over again, with breakfast within the first 30 minutes of waking up. The idea here is to eliminate the desire to eat by taking away variety. Once you realize that food is just fuel and building blocks for your body, you can get away from the emotional issues of food.

  • Rule 4: Don't drink your calories. Avoid any liquid with calories, including milk, fruit juice and soft drinks. Tim makes an exception for red wine, which is good for your health.

  • Rule 5: Take one day off per week, a "dieters gone wild" cheat day. Pick a day, say Saturday, and that day you can eat anything you want, pizza, tacos, fried Twinkies. It is not that cheating is allowed one day a week, but is required for its affect on metabolism, to avoid [ketosis].

This last rule was perhaps the strangest part of the diet. The intended side-benefit was that if you could look forward to a day in the near future to have something you crave, it would give you the willpower to pass it up today. The boost in carbs also resets your metabolism, so that your body doesn't think it is in starvation mode.

Mo and I got popcorn and large soft drinks at the movie theaters on those days. Stocking "cheat food" in your house just adds extra temptation. Trying to schedule our social life around our cheat days proved quite difficult. As a result, "cheat days" turned into cheat weekends and cheat evenings.

Pros: I liked this diet, it worked for me, but it didn't work for Mo.

Cons: Having gone to chef school, I like to prepare a wide variety of meals. I enjoy food, and variety is the spice of life. Also, I often eat breakfast with clients, which means that I will not be able to eat within 30 minutes of waking up (unless I eat breakfast twice!).
The Forks-over-Knives Diet

After watching the movie [Forks over Knives], I decided to try a plant-based, whole-food vegetarian diet. This is basically a vegetarian diet, but discourages dairy, bread, pasta and refined grains.

I was surprised to learn that you can get enough protein on such a diet. It can be done. Rice and beans are shelf-stable, so you can stock up with fewer trips to the grocery store, and eat very inexpensively.

Pros: I liked this diet, I was able to stick with it, and enjoy the meals. Many restaurants in Tucson accomodate vegetarians with substitutions.

Cons: I didn't lose any weight on this diet. I had difficult time trying to combine foods to make complete proteins. I had vitamin deficiency, and had to take multi-vitamin and other supplements to compensate.
The Paleo Diet

The [Paleo diet] reflects the fact that humans have been around for over 200,000 years, but grains, dairy and other processed foods have only been around for the past 10,000 years. Our genetic code is just not designed for these new foods.

Basically, if a hunter-gather could have "hunted it" or "gathered it", then it can be eaten. The diet consists of eggs, fish, fresh meats, poultry, vegetables, fruits, berries, nuts and seeds. It does not include dairy, bread, pasta, wheat, rye, barley, soy, oats, rice, corn, quinoa, beans, products made from processed meats or refined grains.

As for measurements and proportions, I try to eat at least 90g of Protein, and try to eat less than 150g of Carbs. The diet fits well with the foods that I eat in restaurants with clients, the food we are served at work, and the foods that I can prepare at home.

Pros: I like this diet, it is the one that I am currently on.

Cons: I missing putting half-and-half cream in my coffee! Occasionally, I crave some mac-and-cheese, beans-and-rice, a slice of apple pie, or simply a peanut butter and jelly sandwich.

If you have any experiences with these diets, or a different diet that worked for you, please post a comment below!

technorati tags: zone diet, vegetarian, four-hour body, diet, paleo

New Years Resolutions - Finding the Right Diet

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Continuing this week's theme on [New Year's Resolutions for losing weight and getting fit], I will focus this post on diet.

(Note: I am neither a medical doctor nor registered dietician. I can share with you ideas that have worked for me (or people I know) that might help you achieve your goals. I strongly suggest you read books and consult with medical experts as necessary.)

The problem is that most people think of dieting as something you do temporarily. People decide to lose weight, go on a diet, reach their target goal weight, go back to their previous ways, and gain the weight back.

The word Diet comes from the Greek language and means "way of life". Every day that food enters your mouth, you are on a diet. People aren't on or off a diet, but rather switch from one diet to another. The trick is to find a healthy diet that you can live with the rest of your life, so your weight doesn't go up and down.

Most health experts agree that the [Western pattern diet], typical in the United States and other developed countries, is [certainly not healthy]. Washing down that bologna-and-cheese on white bread sandwich with a 44-ounce high-fructose soft drink hasn't served Americans well. This combination of processed meats, refined grains, dairy, and sugar-laden foods has shown to cause obesity and other health problems.

Physicians at Cornell University found that [men take better care of their cars than their bodies]. If you tell a guy that his car takes 12 gallons of high-octane gasoline, 5 quarts of 5W-30 oil, and a 50/50 mix of water and anti-freeze, he would totally understand what you mean.

But tell that same guy that his diet must consist of an appropriate ratio of complete proteins, monounsaturated fats, and carbs with a low glycemic index, and he will scratch his head. Aren't calories just calories?

Unlike a car, where the gasoline, oil and anti-freeze get poured into different openings into fixed metal containers, the human body takes in all of the things it needs in one opening, your mouth, and receives it into a stretchable container, your belly. While carbs are just converted to fuel, the proteins and fats have actual functions and bring building blocks that cannot be built from just carbs alone.

Carbs

Carbs are found mostly in foods like fruits, grains and vegetables. Not all carbs are the same. Some break down quickly to glucose, the sugar molecule that represents fuel for the rest of your body. Others break down slowly. Consider a fireplace, you put a few pieces of newspaper or kindling, and the larger logs on top. The newspaper is easy to light, but burns quickly. The logs on the other hand burn slowly and give you hours of heat.

Eating the Western pattern diet is like filling your fireplace with newspaper, and having to re-light your fire over and over after all the newspaper burns out.

Proteins

Proteins are the building blocks of your muscles and other internal organs. These are built from amino acids, and your body can't make them, you have to have them in your diet. Even if you lead a sedentary lifestyle, sit all day at a desk, then sit all evening in front of the television, your body needs to repair internal muscles and organs with proteins, so you need to eat proteins every day to replenish these amino acids.

Complete proteins, such as those in beef, eggs and fish, have all the amino acids represented. Plant-based proteins, like rice, beans, and wheat, are incomplete, lacking one or more of the amino acids you need.

Fats

Fats are needed to absorb fat-soluble vitamins, which are important for a variety of functions. Monounsaturated fats can be found in olive oil, nuts, and avocados. While many people feel the saturated fats in red meat and dairy are bad for your health, there are exceptions. Coconut milk is high in saturated fats, but good for you.

There is some dispute and controversy on exactly what is an ideal diet. This can be partly attributable to articles that report findings from observational studies, rather than from double-blind clinical studies. To understand the difference, I suggest you watch Tom Naughton present [Science for Smart People] in this amusing 46-minute video.

Over the past few years, I have tried out several different diets, to figure out which one is best for me. I'll save those details for my next post.

technorati tags: Tom Naughton

New Years Resolutions

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Well, it's that time of year again. While every corporate blogger waits for their employer to release last year's earning report, we are forced to find other things to write about that comply within [corporate "black-out" rules].

In the past, I used this black-out period to publish my [New Year's Resolutions] in this blog. In 2010, I took a different approach. I decided NOT to publicize my resolutions to see if that allowed me to stick to them better. Derek Sivers cites research recommending you should [Keep your Goals to Yourself]. For a bit of nostalgia, here is a [recap of my previous resolutions].

"Insanity is doing the same thing over and over again but expecting different results."
-- Albert Einstein

In addition to being a technical consultant for IBM, I am also a certified yoga instructor with formal training. Back in 2004, I co-founded the Tucson Laughter Club, based on [Hasya yoga], a form of yoga that incorporates breathing, stretching and laughter exercises. The two jobs are actually similar, in which I am standing in front of a group of people, telling them what to do and how to do it.

January is the month where gyms and yoga classes are filled with new students who have made New Year's Resolutions. Every time I am asked "What should I do to lose weight, get fit, and sleep better?"

(Note: I am neither a medical doctor nor registered dietician. I can share with you ideas that have worked for me (or my yoga students) that might help you achieve your goals. I strongly suggest you read books and consult with medical experts as necessary.)

I always tell them the same answer. But first, I make them promise they won't share the secret with anyone, and that I will whisper it in their ear. After I get their nod of agreement, I whisper "Eat Less and Exercise More."

I get the same quizzical look every time. The response is typically "That's your big secret? Everyone knows that!" If that's true, why are nearly a third of all Americans obese, out-of-shape, and/or sleep-deprived? The answer is the knowing-doing gap.

Jeff Pfeffer and Bob Sutton explain this concept in their book [The Knowing-Doing Gap: How Smart Companies Turn Knowledge into Action]. I have read this book, and highly recommend it. People know what they need to do, but are not doing it. If you don't have time to read the book, here is an [8-page summary] from Harvard Business School Press.

While the book is focused on why businesses fail to achieve their goals, I think many of the principles apply to individuals trying to reach their health goals:

  • Understand "Why" before "How". People are quick to follow process and procedures, rather than understanding the underylying biology, chemistry, or physiology.

  • Knowing comes from doing and teaching others. Learning is best done by trying a lot things, learning from what works and what does not, thinking about what was learned, and trying again.

  • Actions speaks louder than words, thoughts, and elegant plans. Without taking some action, learning is more difficult and less efficient because it is not grounded in real experience. When I was in Japan, one of the employees told me their boss was NATO, which stood for "No Action, Talk Only!"

  • There is no doing without mistakes. In building a culture of action, one of the most critical elements is how you treat yourself when things go wrong. Even well planned actions can go wrong. All learning involves some failure, something from which one can continue to learn.

  • Fear fosters knowing-doing gaps, so drive out fear. Do you fear making mistakes? Do you fear success? Do you fear people will make fun of you for trying something outside your comfort zone? Drive out that fear!

  • Measure what matters and what can help turn knowledge into action. Peter Drucker is often quoted as saying "If you can't measure it, you can't manage it!" The trick is to figure out which measurements lead to corrective actions.

If you have problems keeping any of your New Year's Resolutions, try to figure out why. Is it because you didn't know what to do? Or, more likely, you know what you needed to do, but didn't do it? Feel free to enter your comments below!

technorati tags: IBM, Resolutions, Albert Einstein, Knowing-Doing Gap, Peter Drucker, Laughter Club, yoga

On the Future of Hyperconnectivity

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Wrapping up this week's theme on the future, fellow blogger David Spark has a great post on his SparkMinute blog titled [20 Brilliant Minds on the future of Hyperconnectivity].

(What does this have to do with Storage? When IBM got back into networking in a big way, they had to decide whether to combine it with one of the existing groups, or form its own group. IBM decided to merge networking with storage, which makes sense since the primary purpose of most networks is to access or transmit information stored somewhere else.)

Last April, the Wharton School and the Institute for the Future convened a one-day [After Broadband] workshop in San Francisco, California, that brought together a group of leading technologists, entrepreneurs, academics and policymakers to explore the future of broadband over the next decade.

At the event, David interviewed 20 people for 10 minutes, and the videos are now available online. Here is one I particularly liked, [David interviewing Bran Ferren of Applied Minds] on Vimeo.

In addition to the [rest of the interview videos], you can find a [gallery of drawings], and the 26-page [report] in PDF format.

technorati tags: IBM, networking, After Broadband, David Spark, Bran Ferren, Applied Minds, Hyperconnectivity



Tags:  storage broadband networking ibm

My Book Review of Entering the Shift Age by David Houle

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Happy New Year, everyone!

Continuing this week's theme about the future, fellow blogger, published author, and futurist David Houle is coming out with a new book this month titled [Entering the Shift Age]. This is a follow-on to his book, [The Shift Age].

Since this book cites IBM studies explicitly, his PR department asked me to review it. If you are an aspiring author that has a book you want me review, and it relates to the topics my blog covers like Cloud, Big Data, storage, and the explosion of information, feel free to send me a copy!

Entering-the-Shift-Age-David-Houle-200161019
(FTC Disclosure: I work for IBM. I was not paid by anyone to mention this book on my blog. I was provided an "Uncorrected Advanced Copy" of this book at no cost to me for this review. I do not know David Houle personally, have not read any of his prior works, nor have I ever seen him speak at public events. This post is neither a paid nor celebrity endorsement of this author, his book, nor any other books by this author.)

First, let's get a few details out of the way:

Title: Entering the Shift Age, 284 pages
Author: David Houle, futurist
Genre: Non-fiction, trends and predictions Publisher: Sourcebooks, Inc.
Publish date: January 2013

As I mentioned in my post [Historians vs. Futurists], there is only one past, but there are many potential futures. There seems to be as many futurists out there as there are potential futures. I suspect not everyone will agree with all that David has written. However, this reminds me of one of my favorite quotes:

"When two futurists always agree, one is no longer necessary." -- old Italian adage

In his book, David asks a series of thought-provoking questions, then answers them with his views and opinions on how the future will roll out:

  • Is humanity now entering a new age that is different than the Information age?
  • If so, what should we call it?
  • Which forces are driving this new age?
  • How will this impact various aspects and institutions of society?

David feels humanity is indeed entering a new age, which he calls the Shift Age. This is driven by three forces: the shift to globalization of culture and politics, the flow of power and influence to individuals, and the acceleration of electronic connectedness.

In a sense, David is like a hunter-gatherer from the Stone age, hunting down trends and gathering ideas from others. In much the same way my compost brings renewed purpose to the rinds and pits of my fruits and vegetables, David's book does a good job paraphrasing the works of many of today's leading futurists.

David predicts the decade we are now in, the 2010's, will mark the end of the Information age, a transition period to this new era, that will lead to transformations in government, education, health, technology, and energy.

Over the past two weeks, I had time to enjoy a variety of movies. I had seen several whose stories wrapped around key moments of transition.

  • "Gone with the Wind", as well as the new offering "Lincoln" from Steven Spielberg. Both are set in the 1860's, the time of the [American Civil War], pitting the Industrial-age forces of the North, against the Agricultural-age economy of the South. This time saw the transition from slavery to freedom.

  • "Doctor Zhivago", set in the time of World War I, on the German-Russian front, as well as the Russian Revolution of 1917, and the resulting Civil War between the Red Guard and the White Army. This saw the transition from a Russian government ruled by Czars, to one ruled by the people through Communism.

  • "Lawrence of Arabia", also set in the time of World War I, but south in Arabia. T. E. Lawrence was able to bring several warring Arab tribes together to defeat the Turks, and was a key figure in the transition to an Arab National Council.

Some might call these completely unexpected [Black Swan] events, while others might feel they are merely fortunate (or misfortunate) sequences of events that led to inevitable social change. Has something happened, or will something happen later this decade, that will drive us to leave the Information Age?

David's previous book, The Shift Age, was published back in 2007, and a lot has happened in the past six years: a global financial melt-down recession; the Arab Spring uprisings in the Middle East; Barack Obama was elected and re-elected; man-made climate change in the form of hurricanes, tsunamis and superstorms hit various parts of the world; brush fires lit up Australia, and BP's Deepwater Horizon oil rig exploded off the Gulf coast, just to name a few.

David's new book reflects the impact of these recent events, from discussions on his [Evolutionshift] blog, to Q&A sessions he has after his public speaking presentations. For those who are not interested in the wide array of topics he covers in this one book, David also offers [a dozen different mini-eBooks] that cover specific topics like [Technology, Energy and Health].

My Rating: Moist and Flaky

Who should read this book: If you are a time-traveler from 1975 that came to this decade to learn all about what your future has in store, but can only select one book to read before you zoom back to your own time period, this would be the book I recommend.

I do not want to imply this is a quick read, or one that you can't put down once you start reading it. Just like you should not gulp down a full bottle of cheap Vodka in one sitting, this book should be read over a series of days, as I did, so that you can mull over in your mind the different points and thoughts he is trying to convey.

technorati tags: IBM, trends, predictions, David Houle, futurist, Shift Age



Tags:  futurist review
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