Analysis before semi-finals of Euro2012
GrzegorzPuchawski 2700050UAH Visits (1997)
While waiting for semi-finals, we have performed exploratory analysis for data from Twitter that refer to group stage and quarter-finals of Euro 2012.
The report below presents this data from different perspectives.
Few comments: as you may notice the number of tweets is highest during the games, and after that it drops significantly. This leads to observation that tweets can be treated as a heart rate monitor of Euro 2012, expressing the current sentiment to the teams during each game. Number of tweets is very high for almost every game. Highest for the opening ceremony and the first match between Poland and Greece. This game has attracted a lot of attention from fans.
The most popular language on Tweeter is English. There is a lot of people that have declared other language in their settings but they tweets in English. Also we observe significant number of tweets in Spanish and French.
The very interesting point is the analysis of predictions from tweets that have been sent before each game. Having predictions and the true result the likelihood of reporting correct outcome is calculated and presented in the table.
Which results were easiest to predict?
In the first columns you can see information about games and real scores, as well as information about percentage of fans, which predicted exact score of the game. The next column shows, how these predictions looks, when we restrict set of possibilities to three options: win, draw or lose.
Any surprises? Sure – quite many!
Looking at exact predictions – no one has expected so high result for the games between Russia and Czech Republic or between Germany and Greece, less than 1% of predictions were accurate for these games. When we look at analysis of win/draw/loose , the biggest surprises are results of games between: Poland and Greece (draw was predicted only by 18%), Portugal and Netherlands (only 16% predicted victory of Portugal ), Sweden and France (only about 5% were counting on Sweden victory).
At the bottom you will find a chart with number of tweets per each game. The first place here has the opening game, also games with the England are commented very often.
Finally we analyze how fans write about coaches. In the last figure the OX axis presents number of tweets in the logarithmic scale while the OY axis presents the sentiment Index (positive/negative) to each of the coaches. What’s interesting and a bit surprising, most of the tweets and mostly positive are about Roy Hodgson (England). Negative tweets are about most of the coaches and especially about Laurent Blanc (France). This shouldn’t be a surprise especially after game between Spain and France.