Emerging Technologies You Need to Know
Matching: mobiledevices X
March was the 1st month of the Roman calendar. The Caesars, Julius and Augustus, were honored with the naming rights to July and August relegating October (#8), November (#9) and December (#10) to their current slots of 10, 11 and 12 in the lunar batting order. Unquenchable ego, sloppy derivatives and hapless government intervention pre-dates the year 0.
As I prepare for a banking conference presentation (feel free to add your own punch line), I observe the following which could be extrapolated to a variety of industries: media, telecom, retail, transportation.
Bank of the Future predictions: let's keep copies of these in the files along with our stash of 'companies long-gone' memorabilia. IMO, banking in 5 years will be ubiquitously mobile, provided by highly trusted and broadly recommended sources (other customers) and regional in size and behavior.
Bank branches are models of the '*way it used to be.*' Going someplace so that someone else can enter some data into a computer is nearly completely anachronistic anyway. And espresso machines and elaborate video presentations won't entice many desirable customers. The financial disaster of today is good news for the Mint.coms, peer to peer lenders, Pay Pals and atypical financial services entities of the future.
I still contend that the Apple Store and IKEA are examples of what a bank should be. IKEA opened a store near Charlotte, North Carolina recently and people camped-out to be among the first through the doors. Customers want to belong to something not transact somewhere.
When the dust and smoke of the financial crisis clears, Google and China will retain their respective dominant positions as the more creative and the lowest cost producers, sharing the title of Best Capitalized. Now is the time to prepare for resumption of the related global competition.
Things aren't as foregone globally or even locally as one is stampeded into believing. 80%+ of the equivalent value of the stock market is on the sidelines, in cash, awaiting market stability. I envision this being like the starting line of the Oklahoma Land Rush. Every loud noise sends the 'Sooners' out 150 points or so. Do you add value? Can I trust you? Will I be associating with people like me? are questions to which every type of Financial Institution will have to answer 'yes' merely to earn the right to join the customer-rush line-up.
There are plenty of technically savvy, motivated and conscientious younger people out there (gen whatever, doesn't matter). They want to make a difference and are willing make to personal and professional investments before they reap attendant rewards (they elected a president, after all). Successful enterprises of the future will modernize the descriptions of their business challenges so that this talent generation can participate.
Some days I wonder what is in store for my teenaged sons over the next 30 years. Every day I wish that I was 30 years younger to be find out with them. Welcome to March. In like a lamb, out like a lion?
Internet Strategist, IBM jStart BusinessDevelopment Manager
JohnFeller 110000RUW6 Tags:  telcos google mobiledevices yahoo advertising sport microsoft iphone 3,395 Views
Tomorrow is Mardi Gras in my hometown of New Orleans. On this day convention defers to imagination.
And plenty of conventional wisdom has stepped aside already this year: in sports, the seemingly unstoppablemastery of Roger Federer and that of the Patriots ended in startling fashion; in the presidential campaign, Obama seems to have surged into a dead-heat with Hillary; and John McCain, counted-out in October, is now the odds-on favorite for his party's nomination.
So what is the wisdom of Microsoft's bid for Yahoo and how might we benefit from this gamble asthey try to prevent Google from doing to them what they did to AOL (America on Line).
AOL's model was to capture the customer in the AOL-only experience. No need to ever leave the world of AOL, whether you wanted to or not. Monthly fee revenue model.
Yahoo trumped this model by providing a portal where Yahoo aggregated content developed by others around the Internet. 'No need to leave, we'll bring it to you.' Banner ad & pop-up revenue model.
Google trumped Yahoo by using their search engine to take visitors all over the Internet where Google would keep track of their searches and visits to deliver related advertising. Advertisers, not visitors, pay Google.
Let's imagine what this merger might imply for our organizations aside from the reminder of the recent,sour history of such mega-merger attempts: e.g. HP & Compaq, AOL & Time Warner, Chrysler & Daimler.
The Internet's emerging technologies and uses are evolving rapidly to being about:
Innovation not Integration by connecting like-minded people regardless of location or employer. This is a design point for our systems and services.
Information not Application by connecting those who need to know with the content that they require.
Mobility and Advertising on the mobile device. Remember AOL and its garden wall approach? This is what the iPhone is doing to the garden walls of the Telecom companies. Google, Yahoo, and Microsoft spent $10b here in 2007.
As Tuesday's Rex parade circles Canal Street, the costumed crowd will shout the conventional "throw me something, mister!" Let's imagine what other opportunities are in store for them.
Laissez les bon temps rouler! cperrien
Headline in 12/11/07 Wall Street Journal, Section B4: Web Surfing on iPhone erases doubts
of mobile devices' future online role. iPhone users accounted for 1 of every 1,000 Web page
views last month due to two factors: iPhone has full browsing capabilities (note to minders of
the garden-wall mentality) and the increasing popularity of mobile computing for more than
just telephony. Even though Apple has sold fewer phones (1.4mm thru Sept) than competitors
using Microsoft mobile operating system (3mm shipped with its mobile op. system in 1Q 07 alone),
iPhone users are browsing the web more than MS users by 50%. If you'll check-out the
Facebook format for an iPhone, you'll see that the younger users are interested in texting and
networking from their mobile devices more than email and web pages from their PCs.
A 2x monthly email that I send to customers:
- Please don't ask about the extent of the aftershock of foolish borrowing and
careless lending. On so many fronts in our globalized marketplace, at both the individual
and enterprise level, we're probably going to have to heed the advice of Tancredi in The Leopard:
"If you want things to stay as they are, things will have to change."
Meanwhile, other engines maintain their hum and will move closer to the center stage of
widespread technical adoption in 2008. Two examples that I track are video as a story-telling device
and the elevation of the 3rd screen to our 1st screen.
- Last Christmas season my high school son and two of his classmates won a contest at the local
upscale mall by producing a sixty second video to promote the shopping season. They won
$400 in equipment for the school and $600 to split three ways. The recently concluded 2007 contest
enjoyed a threefold increase in participation and and a tenfold increase in prize money: $6,000 in
equipment and $4,000 to split. Clearly, the mall, the merchants and the aspiring film-makers see
solid business value in consumer generated, good-enough, easy to deploy video to tell their stories.
- So much is happening on the mobility front that it may not be obvious, although GPS features
and related acquisitons (Navteq by Nokia and Tele Atlas by Tom Tom) are getting plenty of press.
With the $10b that Yahoo, Microsoft, and Google spent in 2007 to acquire search and advertising
related companies and the popular reception to Apple's iPhone, we will soon have the sort of mobile
computing capabilities that consumers in other parts of the world have enjoyed for several years.
The driving force behind all of this activity is control of search on the mobile device. The
revenue model is that Location Awareness facilitates Search and Search enables targeted Advertising.
Curious is our notion that the 1st screen is the TV and the 2nd screen is the PC,
yet we all carry a 3rd screen nearly everywhere we go. "Can you hear me now?" will rapidly
migrate to "We know where you are and can help you to find and to pay for what you want.
Just text me." regards, christopher perrien
Richard Branson of airline (Virgin Air), music (Virgin Music), mobile phone, (Virgin Mobile) fame announced a foray into the - should we say - virgin territory of P2P lending. This initiative takes advantage of Virgin Group's majority share of CircleLending, a Waltham, MA. firm organized to administer private loans (Mint.com, Wesabe.com, Prosper.com are in similar market). Virgin also in negotiations to purchase the recently troubled lender Northern Rock.
His the emphasis on 'friends and family' lending. We'll see. And the conjunction of banking, mobile devices, deep understanding of the consumer marketplace reminds me of eBay with its subsidiaries of PayPal & Skype, as well as its position as the second largest employer in the USA (if one considers secondary and tertiary (#3) sources of income).
Capital ($) has been mobile for a long while thanks to sophisticated IT systems. Now we are beginning to see the mobility of personal capital due to the ever increasing capability of not so sophisticated mobile devices.
Additional info in 10/15/07 NY Times, section c6. cperrien