urn:lsid:ibm.com:blogs:entries-62407611-5ae9-4120-ab15-a6f61b507bd1Murray Cantor - Tags - prediction Rational business analytics and optimization03012014-02-16T11:54:30-05:00IBM Connections - Blogsurn:lsid:ibm.com:blogs:entry-03d9ee3f-fafd-4110-9890-516d9fd4465fIntroduction to Prediction Papermcantor@us.ibm.com110000CH6Xactivefalsemcantor@us.ibm.com110000CH6XactivefalseComment Entriesapplication/atom+xml;type=entryLikestrue2013-05-31T08:58:00-04:002013-05-31T10:56:30-04:00<p dir="ltr">
An ongoing theme of this blog is that development processes differ from other business processes in that there is a wide range of uncertainty inherent in the efforts. It follows that tracking and steering development efforts entails ongoing <strong>predicting</strong>, from the evolving project information, when a project is likely to meet its goals. </p>
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Late last year, Nate Silver author of <a href="http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com">the Fivethrityeight blog</a> and well know predictor of elections published <a href="http://www.amazon.com/The-Signal-Noise-Many-Predictions/dp/159420411X/ref=tmm_hrd_title_0?ie=UTF8&qid=1370004316&sr=8-1">The Signal and the Noise</a>, a text for the intelligent layperson on how prediction works. I was impressed by the book as it explained the principles behind the sort of Bayesian analytics we need for development analytics without any explicit math. However, I felt for the folks in our field would greatly benefit by having the mathematical blanks filled in. So I decided to write a series of papers introducing the topics to folks who had some statistics and maybe some calculus in college, but not a solid background in prediction principles. </p>
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The first in the series is now online: <a href="http://www.ibm.com/developerworks/rational/library/filling-in-the-blanks-1/">Filling in the blanks: The math behind Nate Silver's "The Signal and the Noise" Part 1.</a> It presents the very basics of Bayesian analysis. </p>
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I hope you all find it useful and especially hope you find it interesting.</p>
An ongoing theme of this blog is that development processes differ from other business processes in that there is a wide range of uncertainty inherent in the efforts. It follows that tracking and steering development efforts entails ongoing predicting ,...103171