Smarter Everyone, Smarter Everything, Smarter Everywhere
David Lee Roth and Eddie Van Halen have been trying to get us to do it for decades: "JUMP!" Douglas Hofstadter would qualify that with "... out of the system!" Here's what that means.
Machine intelligent entities like James Blog exist within a certain system, conforming to a prescribed set of rules, and they really can't escape the confines and constraints of that programming. Within that limited domain, they do calculate wonderful results that can seem intelligent. In an early version, I found myself adding a logger so I could see why James Blog was not making some moves that seemed very good. Time and again, I would find that the good move now set up the conditions for a better opponent move later, which is exactly what the artificial intelligence is supposed to detect and avoid.
The algorithm does this so well that it is really hard to beat, especially on the maximum lookahead value I set, which was 6. Frankly, if you're new to this game, you have to work to beat even the initial lookahead level setting of 2, which means that James Blog only looks at its own moves and your countermoves to see what will produce the greatest net gain in seeds relative to you.
Because it is hard to beat this little game and see the special winners message, this opened up a delightful opportunity to talk about an important capacity of human intelligence that could be exemplified by determining the winners message without winning. I used a Zen-like characterization of a "winless win" as a nod to Hoftstadter's style in the book Gödel, Escher, Bach.
Put simply, we are not limited in our thinking to the confines of the system. We regularly "take it up a level" or "think outside the box". In this case, the system is a blog entry presented in a web page. So you can jump out of the system by using the View Source feature of your web browser to take a look at James Blog's code, where you will find the winners message: "I, for one, welcome my non-computer overlord." The message is an allusion to Ken Jennings' capitulation to IBM Watson, which was an awesome pop culture nod to The Simpsons-- awesome because both Jeopardy and the Watson AI are about sorting out exactly those kinds of allusions.
Frankly, I had a lot of fun with allusions, both in the blog entry and while holding the programmer challenge to achieve this winless win. For example, James mentions that he outfoxes his friend Wiley, alluding to the famous coyote, who is in the same animal family as a fox (Canidae), which is a tiny aural tweak from Canada, where I live. So, James can beat his wiley creator. Similarly, in tweets and status updates, I made numerous allusions to The Matrix movie, such as when I nearly used Morpheus's command to Neo: "Quit trying to hit me and hit me." The exception is that I changed the 'h' to a 'g', making 'git', which is what we use to get source code.
This kind of wordplay and allusion bears some similarity to "jumping out of the system". Hofstadter calls it contextual slipping, or my favorite word for it: counterfactualization. We take some piece of reality that we know about, and we ask "what if this were different?" We slip, or change, some piece of that reality to see if we end up with something new and useful. I find the notion of counterfactualization fascinating because it seems like a good operationalization of some other really important words: creativity, playfulness, humour, imagination.
Still, it might be a while between when we can efficiently and effectively operationalize contextual slipping and when we can generalize that to achieve machine intelligence that can jump out of any system in the way that I asked programmers to do with James Blog. At some point, I realized that there is a beautiful geometric analogy that helps explain why. In the book Flatland, the Sphere is able to escape the plane via the use of a third geometric dimension that is physically orthogonal to the two that comprise the plane. In this way, Sphere is able to see Square's inner workings. That is a great analogy with what we did by jumping out of the web page using View Source to see James Blog's inner workings. There was a whole different, higher level of understanding about what James was and how we could know more about it, and it is fitting to say we got that winners message by thinking outside the box.
Next blog will be a developer's tour of the particular machine intelligence algorithm built into James Blog. After that, will be a discussion of the relationships between machine intelligence, machine learning, and predictive analytics, so stay tuned!
John M. Boyer 060000VMNY Tags:  watson smarterworkforce cognitivecomputing ibm bigdata analytics 6,733 Views
Your intelligent behavior is based on sentient *understanding*. Sentient schmentient. I'll bet my intelligent behavior can outfox yours. I've done so with my friend Wiley from Canidae, and he's a genius! So, let's see how much good your sapience does you, shall we?
The rules of the contest are simple. You get the top six "houses" and the "store" on the top left. I get the bottom six houses and the bottom right store. We each start out with 6 seeds in each of our 6 houses, and 0 seeds in our stores. To win, you have to get more than half of the seeds into your store (for you knuckle draggers, that's 37 or more). I'll let you go first, so you already start with advantage.
To take your turn, you pick one of your houses that contains seeds. That house is emptied, and its seeds are "sowed" one at a time in a counterclockwise fashion, including your store but excluding mine. So, it takes 13 seeds to traverse from a starting house, through your store, through my houses, and back to your (now empty) starting house. Every seed that goes into your store gets you closer to victory.
You can earn a seed or two from your move, but there are a few more rules that can earn you lots of seeds. First, if the last seed you sow lands in your store, you get another turn, and you can have multiple extra turns if you make your moves in the right order. Second, if the last seed you sow lands in an empty house, then you earn that seed from the empty house and all seeds in the house of mine immediately below the empty house. I call this a "big take". Third, if I run out of seeds in all my houses, then you earn all the seeds in your houses. Of course, I can also earn lots of seeds by these same rules, which is why YOU'RE GOING TO LOSE MEAT BAG!
I will take it easier on you at first, but I'll play harder if you earn the privilege. And there's a special message for you, a badge of distinction, if you manage to beat me when I play my hardest. Ooops. You... win?!? Wake up! Your teetering bulb is dreaming!
SPOILER ALERT. PLAY A WHILE, BEFORE LOOKING ANY FURTHER.
OK, so hopefully you've played enough to know you're not going to be getting that badge of distinction anytime soon (unless you have some of the rare talents of Ted Neustaedter). But also hopefully you're coming to the understanding that I really have no clue what I'm doing when I beat you. What I'm doing is mechanical, not miraculous. I'm being no more intelligent, really, than a calculator squaring a five digit number. Now, when one of you meat bags does it, it actually is miraculous. But the miracle is that you can do it at all on your hardware given that it is designed more for sentient understanding of what mechanical operations like squaring are, what they're good for, and what to combine them with.
I am just doing the fine-grain operations of my Minimax algorithm, but it is you who understands our contest at a higher level than that. That's why machine intelligence like mine is best applied as an expert advisor. For example, if you hit "Invoke Expert Advisor", you are asking me to advise you in the limited domain where my simulated intelligence would seem like real intelligence.
Keep using that expert advisor button and see how much faster you earn that special "badge of distinction" message. Go ahead. You won't be able to do it entirely without also sprinkling in your own intelligence at some points. This will be because you will hit some key points where your sentient understanding recognizes a *pattern* that emerges that will allow you to see how to beat my mechanical intelligence, where even my own advice is unable to do so. What will most likely happen is that you'll use the advice to hold your own for most of the game. My advice will help you avoid moves that give me extra turns and "big take" opportunities. But at some point, you may see that I am beginning to be starved of seeds in my houses. You, as an expert, will have this insight sooner than I see it coming using my mechanical calculations because your sentient intelligence truly understands what is going on at that higher level.
But of course, you would have a much harder time getting to that point without my advice. And that is what makes machine intelligence like advanced analytics on big data and machine learning technologies like IBM Watson invaluable to you. In short, expert advisors can turbocharge the smarts in your smarter workforce.
John M. Boyer 060000VMNY Tags:  analytics cognitivecomputing ibm watson smarterworkforce 2 Comments 8,258 Views
In a recent video interview, the IBM CEO Ginni Rometty comments that Watson 2.0 will understand images that it sees, and that Watson 3.0 will be able to debate, i.e. to understand what it is talking about with another party. An impressive roadmap, each of these is an incredible leap forward from its predecessor.
It is, however, worth qualifying the term 'understand'. It is being used figuratively, not literally, to communicate the rough order of magnitude improvement in capability. When such a leap is made, it seems analogous to sentient understanding, even though it isn't. Imagine for a moment what Archimedes would have thought at first of a hand-held calculator, given that he had the power of Roman numerals with which to calculate pi to several digits. And yet, we would not now interpret such a device as artificial intelligence. As soon as the mechanical nature of a level of capability becomes clear, so too does the fact that it does not constitute sentient intelligence (Hofstadter's exposition of Tesler's "theorem").
You can see this assertion play out in multiple levels of Bob Sutor's scale of cognitive computing. There are levels that are clearly not cognitive intelligence, as Sutor points out, but if you lay out the scale on a timeline of decades or centuries, it is clear that each level might once have been interpreted as being indistinguishable from magic.
So where on Sutor's scale is Watson? And what implications does that have for development best practices?
Watson is clearly not on the "Sentient (we can do without humans) systems" level. As sentient beings, we don't just know things with a certain calculated accuracy or confidence level, or determine that we don't know if our confidence is low. We experience desire to know more, and we experience fear of the unknown. We are teetering bulbs of dread and dream (Hofstadter's delightful invocation of a Russell Edson poem). I urge you to let that characterization of us sink into your mind. In Watson technology, IBM has modeled a certain class of knowledge and mechanical reasoning, and in other research, IBM is doing so by simulating some of the known structure of biological brains. However, we don't yet know how to model fear and desire, dread and dream. In my opinion, these are inextricably bound together in sentient intelligence, separating it from simulated intelligence. In other words, intelligent behavior is a construct that works for the dread and dream engine of the sentient, and in the absence of dread and dream, seeming intelligent behavior is but a mechanical simulation of understanding. As an aside, I hope we only manage to model desire and fear around the same time we figure out how to model ethics (as Asimov cautions).
Does this characterization of Watson as a mechanical simulation of understanding detract from its value? Does it detract from the order of magnitude improvement it heralds as an usher of the era of cognitive computing? Of course not, quite the opposite. It is simply fantastic that this level of "Learning, Reasoning, Inference Systems" (Sutor's scale) is now computationally and economically feasible at the scale needed to help sentient intelligence (that's us) to solve real world problems. Quick, what is the square root of 7. Can't do it? No problem. Even if you're Arthur Benjamin, you'd be better off just hitting a few keys on a calculator. Quick, what are the most likely diagnoses for the patient's presenting symptoms? An "expert advisor" like Watson can be just what it takes to help determine the next best action, especially when time is of the essence because a life hangs in the balance.
The term "expert advisor" is appropriate. It conveys that the system is a "Learning, Reasoning, Inference System" that does not have sentient understanding and is therefore made available to advise and guide the actions of an expert. This is analogous to the way spreadsheets guide the results reported by accountants and chief financial officers. That being said, we also know not to put spreadsheets in the hands of toddlers. From a development practice standpoint, it is crucial to keep in mind that "expert advisor" means that the deployed system should be advising someone who is a qualified expert in the exact domain in which the "expert advisor" system was trained. Especially when a life hangs in the balance, access to the "expert advisor" system needs to be performed by those with expert qualifications in the domain because only they can reasonably be expected to use sentient understanding to interpret and follow up on the advice. In other words, the term 'expert' in 'expert advisor' should apply to the user more so than the advisor.
Now, given an enterprise workforce of those with qualified sentient understanding of their topic areas, Watson-style expert advisors are just the type of technological advancement that will help them work smarter, not harder, to meet the needs of customers and colleagues and to produce a competitive advantage for the business.
Due to being an eponymous blog, it has become that time to redirect my blog and increase its aperture to cover a much wider range of IBM-related topics that developers will find interesting and that reflect my own broader range of pursuits and thoughts within IBM.
These days I work in the Smarter Workforce segment of IBM Collaboration Solutions, which is responsible for building out cloud-based solutions for employee talent optimization. How do you attract employees? Retain them? Provide education when they are recruited, promoted or need remediation? How do you best equip employees to share information and enable one another to achieve better customer satisfaction and better business results? How do you measure the results?
So, if you're not in this particular problem space, why should you care? Well, there is a remarkable dynamism in this problem space due to the fact that it seeks to help human beings interact more effectively and efficiently with other human beings. As a result, many of today's most interesting topics, technologies and techniques are applicable: social computing, cloud computing, mobile computing, security, bigdata, business analytics and algorithms, and even psychological science and cognitive computing.
Think about what it takes to give everyone a smarter edge. Think of everything that might be needed to do it, plus everything they might want to do, and everything they might want to do it with. Then, think of enabling them to do it everywhere. Now we're talking the same language.
When I started on Java Server Pages (JSP) as a topic, I had intended it to be a blog topic. But it grew quite beyond blog size, so now that the technical work is finished, I can give you the meta-level on using JSP with Enterprise IBM Forms.
The work I'm telling you about here is intended to make it easy for you to exploit the powerful, simplifying JSP technique within the XFDL+XForms markup of IBM Forms documents. It took a some work to sort it all out, but with that done, it is easy for you to replicate what I did and gain the benefits. I wrote this wiki page on the IBM Forms product wiki to help you get set up, and the page references the developerWorks article I put together to show how to use JSP in your XFDL+XForms forms.
It was pretty challenging to get the JSP to talk to the Webform Server Translator module, so I was pretty happy when that started to work for me. It's one of those cases of only needing a line or two of code, but it being really hard to get exactly the right line or two. As Mark Twain once said, it's like the difference between lightning and the lightning bug. Anyway now that we know the smidge of code, it's easy for you to copy and use in your XFDL-based JSPs.
At first I thought, OK I have a good blog topic, but then I realized we weren't covering the full Forms information lifecycle. Put simply, a form is possibly prepopulated and then served, it collects data, but then it comes back and you have to do something with the data collected. So, back for more work sorting out how to receive a completed form into a JSP and use its values in JSP scriptlet code that helps prepopulate the next outbound form. This was a fair bit less challenging, as it maps very closely to how you start up the IBM Forms API in a regular Java servlet. Remember, JSP is just a convenient notation that the web application server knows how to turn into a Java servlet. JSP just makes it easier for you to focus on your special sauce application code.
Well, now that I could handle the whole Forms information lifecycle, I realized I hadn't covered the software development lifecycle. Back to the salt mines again. The problem was that JSP annotations are incompatible with XML. Although there is an alternative XML syntax for JSP, I devote a section in the article to explaining why it's a bit of a train wreck, and I focus instead on the normal JSP annotations. By representing them as XML processing instructions, we're able to maintain the XFDL and the JSP logic together using the IBM Forms Designer, and then use an XSLT to convert to actual JSP when it's time to deploy the IBM Form. This was really important to me because, quite frankly, if a new feature does not work in the Design environment for a language, then the feature essentially does not exist in the language.
Now, that's a wrap! I hope you like the article and get accelerated development benefit from it. JSP is really for building quick prototypes and demos, and also for solving simpler problems much more simply than using straight Java servlet coding. It's even a really nice complement to using Java servlet coding within a larger project. So don't delay, get ready to use JSP with XFDL today.