Cognitive Predictions

The cognitive market is expanding at momentous speed, with the annual growth rate reaching 40%. It is no longer a question of why you should engage in cognitive technologies, but how. 2017 will result in widespread tangible implementations and achievement of real business value as the mind share in cognitive solutions changes to market share.

In 2016 most cognitive implementations have been Custom Built Solutions as the large enterprises of the world start incorporating the technology as part of their strategic transformative plays. The disruptive nature of these solutions make the investment of energy and time well worth the while. In 2017 this trend will continue, as enterprises increasingly embark upon digital reinvention journeys, pursuing an outside in and experience based approach to their business. These programs will drive demand for cognitive solutions focused on specific business problems of a strategic nature, with a material economic impact.

Another model for implementing cognitive solutions in 2017 will be the emergence of BotClouds, which will scale in the hundreds. Companies that own expertise will be able to create and train a corpus of domain specific knowledge to sell to their clients in large volumes, artificial intelligence predictionsthrough Omni channel conversation solutions that the user can interact with. These Botclouds will not require large upfront investment and will attract those parts of the market that cannot entertain a bespoke or custom cognitive solution.

Moreover, Cognitive technology will become available to everyone as suppliers create platforms, allowing API Infusion. API’s, the building blocks of cognitive solutions, are being made available through cloud environments. Not only does this create a quick and consumption based way to infuse cognitive capabilities into existing applications, but it makes them available to everyone. There will be an explosion of micro services. So if you have a bright idea there is nothing stopping you from turning it into reality!

But what happens when everyone has access to the technology? Chaos ensues – with three major consequences:

  1. The hunt for the ‘dominant design’. In 2016, around 4 billion was invested in cognitive technologies, while the amount of venture capital in the market was around half that. This ratio mirrors the transport industry in the 1800’s when the transition from horse drawn carriage to the car was taking place. A similar transition into the cognitive era will result with high rates of competition and a huge variety of solutions. The ‘dominant design’ may well be clear by the end of 2017. The entities that own the intellectual property for technology in these designs will start to reap the benefits of their investment.
  2. ‘IT services’ will be redefined. As everyone has access to the same technologies, services companies will not be differentiated on the technological products they offer. They will have to function jointly in ways they have never done before. These organizations will have to work much more extensively in their ecosystems, partnering with customers, competitors and suppliers. The industry will take on new shapes, becoming an entangled web of collaborations.
  3. Cognitive will touch every individual on a personal level. The market will spend 80% of its value in Banking, Insurance and Healthcare. Everyone interacts with these sectors on a personal level, and we all rely on them in our day to day lives. As over half of the market size will relate to natural language processing, cognitive bots and related technologies will become a main point of access to the our health and finance. We will personally be touched by cognitive.

The year 2017 will shape the way we will use cognitive technologies in the future. This process may be chaotic and require us to redefine the way that we do business, but the value returned to those who embrace and drive the changes will be substantial. Cognitive technology will be infused in everything that we do.

Partner - IBM GBS Watson Leader

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