Cybercrime in 2006: what to expect

At the start of every year, IBM's Global Security Intelligence Services team predicts the most important security threat and attack trends for the coming year. Here are highlights of their four top predictions for 2006.

• Botnets will continue to represent one of the biggest threats to the Internet. Newer botnets will use different methods for command and control, such as peer to peer and instant messaging. Following the high-profile arrest last year of Dutch botnet operators that controlled 1.5 million bots, criminals will migrate to smaller cells to hide botnet actions and commanders more effectively.
• Massive, globally pervasive worm outbreaks will continue to decrease in frequency, as smaller, stealthier and more targeted attacks replace them. Organizations will increasingly find themselves extorted by attackers threatening denial-of-service attacks against Web servers, holding data hostage by encrypting malware and other threats.
• The increased use of collaboration tools, such as blogging, will lead to the leakage of confidential business data.
• As software vendors devote more resources to addressing software vulnerabilities, computer users will continue to be the most vulnerable point of attack. Miscreants will focus more effort on convincing users to execute the attack on their behalf.