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Now that Google has announced the Nexus One - its own version of an Android-based "app phone" (h/t David Pogue) - they have enhanced the likelihood of an even larger and faster-growing base of Adroid apps than we predicted last month.
In IDC Predictions 2010, we forecasted that "Google Android — now on a dozen devices — will emerge as a potent competitor to the iPhone, BlackBerry, Symbian, and Microsoft platforms." We went on to say "there are now about 10,000 applications for Android; we predict there will be a strong ramp (albeit slower than the iPhone app ramp) for Android — look for 50,000–75,000 applications by the end of 2010."
Why, you may ask, did we envision a slower ramp than for iPhone apps? This is what we said: "The advantage of Android — that it's more "open" than the iPhone platform — creates more compatibility challenges for developers across the different device manufacturers' hardware." And this multiple-manufacturers philosophy has, indeed, created some compatibility/portability frustration for the Android developer community.
But now, with the Nexus One effectively creating a strong reference platform for Android apps, Google is trying to mitigate that issue. The Nexus One will likely drive other Android handset manufacturers to put more a bit more weight on compatibility with the Nexus One implementation of Android, and less on hacking/modifying Android to adapt to their own unique hardware designs. And that's good news for Android developers - and customers.
So - if it's not too soon to adjust our 2010 predictions (heck, it's only January 5th!) - we'd like to revise our year-end 2010 Android apps prediction to 75,000-100,000, closer to the iPhone's year one trajectory. We're not quite predicting that Apple's running for cover; the Nexus One is, after all, a version 1.0 product, and the iPhone continues to have enormous momentum. But with Google's strategic move to strengthen (and de-fragment) its mobile apps platform, Apple is certainly looking at a tougher competitor today than they saw yesterday.
In a recent post, I shared users' perceptions of cloud benefits and challenges from our most recent IDC IT Cloud Services Survey. In this post, I'll show what these same IT and line-of-business executives say about their likeliness to adopt the cloud services model for different IT applications, workloads and services.
Once again, the survey was fielded, from the IDC Enterprise Panel of IT executives and their line-of-business (LOB) colleagues.
Organizations Are Likely to Consider Cloud Delivery for Many IT Offerings
We asked the panel to rate their organizations' likelihood - on a 1 (very unlikely) to 5 (very likely) scale - to pursue the cloud model for a variety of IT applications, workloads and services. The chart below shows the percentage of panelists responding 3, 4 or 5 - that is, neutral to very likely.
This year's IDC IT cloud services survey reveals many of the same perceptions about cloud benefits and challenges as seen in last year's survey. But there are a few interesting shifts this year, driven largely by: 1) budget pressure from the challenging economy, and 2) a growing sophistication in users' understanding of cloud services.
This year's survey was fielded, like last year's, from the IDC Enterprise Panel of IT executives and their line-of-business (LOB) colleagues. The respondent population is very similar to that of last year's survey, validating comparisons with last year's results.
Economics and Adoption Speed Still Top Benefits; Standardization Moves Up
This year's survey shows, once again, that economic benefits are key drivers of IT cloud services adoption. Three of the top five benefits were about perceived cost advantages of the cloud model: pay for use (#1), payments streamed with use (#3) and shift of IT headcount and costs to the service provider (#5).
On Thursday’s IDC Predictions 2010 webcast, our line to the On24 service dropped just a few questions into the Q&A session. We captured all the questions, and - as promised - we are posting answers to them here on IDC eXchange. Many thanks to my IDC colleagues who contributed to these Q&A responses.
On Thursday December 3rd, IDC released its big picture predictions for the IT and Telecommunications industry in 2010. Here are some links for more detail.
The Webcast - The recorded one-hour IDC Predictions 2010 telebriefing (simple registration required):>
The Document - The full "IDC Predictions 2010" document:
The Video - And here's the 5-minute video summary:
Answers to Telebriefing Questions - On Thursday's IDC Predictions webcast, our line to the On24 service dropped just a few questions into the Q&A session. We captured all the questions, and over the next several days we'll post answers to those questions here on IDC eXchange. So stay tuned!





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